Those in the market for a new home in Salt Lake County will likely see home prices hover around the same in the near future, though an interest rate decrease could be the mark that thousands of households are waiting for to buy that elusive first home.
Those were some of the takeaways from the Salt Lake Board of Realtor’s 2026 housing forecast report, which was discussed during an event Wednesday in Salt Lake City.
The report found there was little change in the county’s for-sale market between 2024 and 2025, as the number of home sales dipped by 2.4% between the two years. Home prices also inched upward, growing by 1.9% from $539,900 to $550,000.
James Wood, Ivory-Boyer Senior Fellow at the Kem C. Gardner Institute at the University of Utah, gave a breakdown of the recent data Wednesday to a Little America Hotel ballroom full of real estate professionals. Wood described the local market as running in place, as the number of residential real estate sales per 1,000 residents has remained largely the same since 2023, hovering between 9.4 and 9.5.
Wood pointed to the county’s huge jump in median sales price from 2020 to 2022, when the county went from a median sale price of $380,000 to $530,000 — nearly a 40% increase. That spike has been leveling out since.
“We are really catching our breath now,” Wood said, adding that median home prices posted a -2.8% change from 2022 to 2023.
Overall, Wood said it’s likely the county’s for-sale market in 2026 will be similar to those in recent years.
“I think (for) 2026, I don’t see many indicators out there that can say, ‘well, we’re going to, all of a sudden, see a surge in buying or a surge in prices,’” Wood said.
Utah’s expected job growth rate is around 1.5%, he said, adding that’s the lowest level of job growth in recent years. Slowing migration rates and interest rates remaining high are other headwinds Wood cited in his talk. He said over 61% of mortgage holders have a rate below 4%, and interest rates remaining high is a big reason why people are opting to stay in their homes.
However, there are some upsides. Wood said mortgage rates are starting to inch toward the lower 6%, and Utah’s younger population gives the state advantages that many others don’t.
“We have a disproportionate number of young households, 25 to 34 year olds, they have trouble getting in but they’re also an important component of demand,” Wood said. “35% of mortgages last year in Utah were to households with a head of household between 25 and 34.”
Overall, Wood’s message to those in the room was to, “just hang in there,” as 2026 will likely be similar for residential real estate compared to recent years.
“Better times are ahead,” Wood told real estate professionals. “As soon as we get through the elections, the midterms, and see where interest rates end up, and with all what’s going on in the world, it’s really a time of uncertainty, but plan on about what you did last year. If you do better on that, congratulations.”
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